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Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition (The MIT Press) free ebook download

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Author(s):	Roger B. Myerson

Date:	2021	Format:	rar	Language:	English	ISBN/ASIN:	0262043122
Pages:	568	OCR:		Quality:		ISBN13:
Uploader:	topron	Upload Date:	6/21/2021 8:47:01 PM

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An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty.
This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets.
The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables  conditional expectation  optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection  risk sharing and finance  dynamic models of growth  dynamic models of arrivals  and model risk.
New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk  new sections in every chapter  many new end-of-chapter exercises  and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Links Table

	Title	Link	Password	Size (MB)	Thank to	Inform Admin
3011378	Book	https://nitro.download/view/405377E5C682...		0.00	topron
3011379	Book part 2	https://nitro.download/view/2DA81470B428...		0.00	topron

Tags: Decisions Economic Models Press Probability

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Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition (The MIT Press) free ebook download

Category: History

Description: Click to see full description

Category:
History