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Secular Cycles free ebook download

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History

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Author(s):	Peter Turchin

Date:	2009-08-09	Format:	EPUB	Language:	English	ISBN/ASIN:	0691136963
Pages:	360	OCR:		Quality:		ISBN13:	9780691136967
Uploader:	eternal	Upload Date:	12/19/2016 6:13:10 AM

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Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline  the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations  and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillationswhat the authors call secular cycles.

Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.

An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.

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2213129	Book	https://k2s.cc/file/e83834c0484fa/069113...		4.00	eternal

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Secular Cycles free ebook download

Category: History

Description: Click to see full description

Category:
History